📈 AIM Trading
Commodity Calendar
A clear yearly overview for coffee, cocoa, soybeans and natural gas. The goal is not to pretend to have a crystal ball, but to offer a calm map: when to watch, when to consider a buying window, and when it may be wiser to keep your fingers away from the button like keeping a coffee cup away from the keyboard on a Monday morning.
🫡 Draft ready to be embedded on the site
Yearly Table
The calendar highlights seasonality, weather factors, geopolitical risk and observation windows suitable for longer-dated options.
| Commodity | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Weather / events / notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ☕ Coffee | 👀 | 👀 | 🟢 3M | 🟢 C? | 🌧️ | ❄️ | ❄️🌪️ | 👀 | 🌸 | 🟢 | 👀 | — | Brazilian weather, flowering, drought and frost risk. This is a good place to note crop estimates, storms and unusual temperature periods. |
| 🍫 Cocoa | 👀 | 🟢 | 👀 | 🎂 season | ⚠️ | 🌧️ | 👀 | 🟢 | 🟢 3M | 🌧️ | ⚡ | 👀 | West African rains, disease risk, crop reports and the political situation. In cocoa, humility is sometimes the cheapest insurance policy. |
| 🌱 Soybeans | 🇧🇷 harvest | 🇧🇷 harvest | 🟢 | 🟢 planting | 🌧️ | 🔥 | 🔥🌪️ | ⚠️ | 🟢 | 👀 | — | — | US planting and weather, Brazilian harvest and Chinese demand. Delayed planting and drought risks also fit here well. |
| 🔥 Natural Gas | ❄️ winter | ❄️ | 👀 | 🟢 storage | 🟢 | ⛽ | ⛽ | 👀 | 🟢 winter pricing | ⚡ | ❄️ | ❄️ | Storage levels, winter forecasts, LNG flows and geopolitical disruptions. Delivery problems, cold waves and storm impacts belong here too. |
⚪ Neutral – no special edge
👀 Watch – monitor the situation
🟢 Possible buying window for a 3-month option
⚠️ Elevated risk – caution
🚨 Exceptional risk / storm period
Explanations and Notes
Symbols
- 🌧️ rain / excessive moisture
- 🔥 drought / heat stress
- ❄️ frost or cold risk
- 🌪️ storms / unusual weather
- ⚡ geopolitical or other news risk
- 3M long option window
- C? possible call idea
Further Development
- Automatic highlighting of the current month
- Tooltips for cells on mouse hover
- A separate weather diary by commodity
- A possible maintenance view for easier updating
Markku's Notes
- Coffee feels the easiest to follow
- Cocoa requires humility against the trend
- Soybeans are still a work in progress
- Natural gas is interesting but complicated