📈 AIM Trading

Commodity Calendar

A clear yearly overview for coffee, cocoa, soybeans and natural gas. The goal is not to pretend to have a crystal ball, but to offer a calm map: when to watch, when to consider a buying window, and when it may be wiser to keep your fingers away from the button like keeping a coffee cup away from the keyboard on a Monday morning.

🫡 Draft ready to be embedded on the site

Yearly Table

The calendar highlights seasonality, weather factors, geopolitical risk and observation windows suitable for longer-dated options.

Commodity Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Weather / events / notes
☕ Coffee 👀 👀 🟢 3M 🟢 C? 🌧️ ❄️ ❄️🌪️ 👀 🌸 🟢 👀 Brazilian weather, flowering, drought and frost risk. This is a good place to note crop estimates, storms and unusual temperature periods.
🍫 Cocoa 👀 🟢 👀 🎂 season ⚠️ 🌧️ 👀 🟢 🟢 3M 🌧️ 👀 West African rains, disease risk, crop reports and the political situation. In cocoa, humility is sometimes the cheapest insurance policy.
🌱 Soybeans 🇧🇷 harvest 🇧🇷 harvest 🟢 🟢 planting 🌧️ 🔥 🔥🌪️ ⚠️ 🟢 👀 US planting and weather, Brazilian harvest and Chinese demand. Delayed planting and drought risks also fit here well.
🔥 Natural Gas ❄️ winter ❄️ 👀 🟢 storage 🟢 👀 🟢 winter pricing ❄️ ❄️ Storage levels, winter forecasts, LNG flows and geopolitical disruptions. Delivery problems, cold waves and storm impacts belong here too.
⚪ Neutral – no special edge
👀 Watch – monitor the situation
🟢 Possible buying window for a 3-month option
⚠️ Elevated risk – caution
🚨 Exceptional risk / storm period

Explanations and Notes

Symbols

  • 🌧️ rain / excessive moisture
  • 🔥 drought / heat stress
  • ❄️ frost or cold risk
  • 🌪️ storms / unusual weather
  • geopolitical or other news risk
  • 3M long option window
  • C? possible call idea

Further Development

  • Automatic highlighting of the current month
  • Tooltips for cells on mouse hover
  • A separate weather diary by commodity
  • A possible maintenance view for easier updating

Markku's Notes

  • Coffee feels the easiest to follow
  • Cocoa requires humility against the trend
  • Soybeans are still a work in progress
  • Natural gas is interesting but complicated